Monday’s Market Minute: Jobs Data In Focus Before Holiday Weekend

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The week begins with Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey this morning, and New York Fed President John Williams speaking later this afternoon. With the mixed housing data as of recent, today’s number will be closely watched and could provide some clarity – after falling last month by almost 22%, this week’s Pending Home Sales are expected to come in higher, just above 11%. Tomorrow we have Redbook, Consumer Confidence, more housing data, and Chicago PMI – but things heat up rapidly as we move into the middle of the week, and the focus shifts to the jobs reports.

On Wednesday, the ADP and the Fed minutes will be the major focal point, with jobs and the Fed first and foremost on the minds of traders. With the shortened week due to the 4th of July holiday, markets are closed Friday, and the primary focal point will be the monthly unemployment data – especially Non-Farm Payrolls after the beat last month that shocked traders by adding +2.5M jobs when a decline of over +7M was expected.

This week, the expectations are for Non-Farm Payrolls to come in higher by +3M. As businesses begin the re-opening process and shut-in restrictions get lifted, many companies have reported consumers appear to have “pent-up demand,” and spending, as a result, has been “robust”. But with concerns related to the increased numbers of coronavirus cases as restrictions ease, it will be key to keep an eye on what the economic data shows us on a weekly basis in terms of how the economic recovery is playing out.

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